• Brock Purdy was a deep-ball specialist in 2023: He finished first in positive EPA rate and threw for 12 touchdowns and 38 first downs on deep throws while recording 19 big-time time throws to only three turnover-worthy plays.
• A rookie year to remember for C.J. Stroud: He ranks first among first-year signal-callers in positive EPA rate (54.8%), deep passing grade (99.3), deep passing yards (1,289), first downs (38) and deep passer rating (142.5) dating back to 2014.
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1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
1.048 EPA, 58.8% Positive EPA Rate
Purdy led all quarterbacks in EPA on deep passes, nearly doubling his mark from 2022 (0.547). He finished first in positive EPA rate and threw for 12 touchdowns and 38 first downs on such throws while recording 19 big-time time throws to only three turnover-worthy plays. He also generated a 134.7 passer rating on deep throws, the second-best mark in the league.
2. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
0.973 EPA, 54.8% Positive EPA Rate
Stroud had one of the best deep passing performances from a rookie quarterback over the past decade. He ranks first among first-year signal-callers in positive EPA rate (54.8%), deep passing grade (99.3), deep passing yards (1,289), first downs (38) and deep passer rating (142.5) dating back to 2014. He also led the league in deep passing yards and deep passer rating for the season.
Stroud threw nine touchdowns and recorded a 35.4% big-time throw rate while making only one turnover-worthy play on deep shots.
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
0.952 EPA, 48% Positive EPA Rate
Tagovailoa leads the position in deep throw EPA (0.941) over the past two seasons and finished 2023 as a top-10 passer in turnover-worthy play rate (10.3%) on deep passes.
He recorded the second-lowest air-yards percentage (76.8%) this past year but still finished third in deep passing yards (1,202), thanks in part to his receivers producing after the catch. Tagovailoa threw for 11 touchdowns and 33 first downs on deep attempts, both top-five figures, and ranked sixth in big-time throw rate (38.2%).
4. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
0.871 EPA, 54.5% Positive EPA Rate
Since coming to Los Angeles in 2021, Stafford ranks second in EPA (0.745) and positive EPA rate (48.8%) on deep passes, throwing for 19 touchdowns and 69 big-time throws (fourth most).
In 2023, Stafford ranked in the top five in positive EPA rate and deep passer rating (122.0). He posted a 40.7% big-time throw rate (second) and threw for a combined 37 touchdowns and first downs while committing only three turnover-worthy plays on deep shots.
5. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
0.810 EPA, 48.5% Positive EPA Rate
Prescott got the ball out quickly on deep passes, averaging 2.95 seconds per throw, and kept it out of harm’s way en route to a 3.7% turnover-worthy play rate (fifth best). He finished in the top five in passing yards (1,085), touchdowns (11), first downs (36) and big-time throws (27) on deep passes — all career-high marks — and produced a 126.3 passer rating.
6. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
0.769 EPA, 49.5% Positive EPA Rate
Lawrence had his best year as a deep passer, recording 11 touchdowns, 34 first downs and a league-best 30 big-time throws. He set career highs in adjusted completion percentage (50.7%), passer rating (114.9) and turnover-worthy play rate (6.7%) on deep throws. Since entering the league in 2021, Lawrence ranks in the top five among quarterbacks in deep touchdowns (24), deep first downs (79) and deep big-time throws (70).
7. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
0.711 EPA, 49% Positive EPA Rate
Through the first nine weeks of 2023, Love produced extremely poor figures in adjusted completion rate (31.6%), turnover-worthy play rate (13.2%) and EPA (0.095) on deep throws.
That all changed in the second half of the season.
From Week 10 on, Love led the league in deep attempts (52) and EPA (1.178) while finishing second in positive EPA rate (56.9%). He recorded 10 touchdowns and 20 big-time throws on deep passes, both ranking first, and finished with a 121.0 passer rating (fourth).
8. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
0.612 EPA, 48.1% Positive EPA Rate
Smith slipped a little in the rankings this season after ranking in the top five in 2022 in EPA (0.682) and deep passer rating (124.1). His deep touchdowns dropped from a league-best 15 in 2022 to five this past season, and his deep passing yards figure fell from seventh to 15th (811). He threw 26 first-down passes and finished with a 104.2 passer rating on deep shots. Smith did remain in the top five in big-time throw rate (38.3%), and his turnover-worthy play rate improved from 8.8% to 6.7%.
9. Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals
0.592 EPA, 43.3% Positive EPA rate
With Joe Burrow lost for the season, Browning stepped in admirably and finished seventh in positive EPA rate (48.1%) and eighth in turnover-worthy play rate (4.5%) on deep throws across eight games. He ranked fifth in yards after the catch rate percentage (26.1%) and posted a 27.3% big-time throw rate on such plays.
10. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
0.590 EPA, 56.3% Positive EPA Rate
Cousins ranked 10th in deep yards and third in positive EPA rate on deep shots at the time of his injury. He ranked near the bottom in big-time throw rate (20.0%) but made just two turnover-worthy plays and ranked sixth in deep passer rating (117.1).
Since joining the Vikings, the veteran has become one of the league's better deep passers. Since 2018, Cousins ranks in the top five in touchdown passes (50) and first downs (154) on deep throws. He also ranks fifth in EPA (0.664) and 11th in passer rating (109.0).
