Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America. (2024)

Phillips, B. L. (2013). Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America. Proc Biol Sci, 280(1766). https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1290

Phillips, Ben L. ; Puschendorf, Robert. / Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America. In: Proc Biol Sci. 2013 ; Vol. 280, No. 1766.

@article{79b0961487284d8a89a1423fd85eb8a1,

title = "Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America.",

abstract = "The virulence of a pathogen can vary strongly through time. While cyclical variation in virulence is regularly observed, directional shifts in virulence are less commonly observed and are typically associated with decreasing virulence of biological control agents through coevolution. It is increasingly appreciated, however, that spatial effects can lead to evolutionary trajectories that differ from standard expectations. One such possibility is that, as a pathogen spreads through a naive host population, its virulence increases on the invasion front. In Central America, there is compelling evidence for the recent spread of pathogenic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and for its strong impact on amphibian populations. Here, we re-examine data on Bd prevalence and amphibian population decline across 13 sites from southern Mexico through Central America, and show that, in the initial phases of the Bd invasion, amphibian population decline lagged approximately 9 years behind the arrival of the pathogen, but that this lag diminished markedly over time. In total, our analysis suggests an increase in Bd virulence as it spread southwards, a pattern consistent with rapid evolution of increased virulence on Bd's invading front. The impact of Bd on amphibians might therefore be driven by rapid evolution in addition to more proximate environmental drivers.",

keywords = "amphibian declines, chytridiomycosis, epidemiology, hierarchical Bayesian model, host–pathogen, virulence, Amphibians, Animals, Central America, Chytridiomycota, Host-Pathogen Interactions, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Virulence",

author = "Phillips, {Ben L.} and Robert Puschendorf",

year = "2013",

month = sep,

day = "7",

doi = "10.1098/rspb.2013.1290",

language = "English",

volume = "280",

journal = "Proc Biol Sci",

issn = "1471-2954",

number = "1766",

}

Phillips, BL 2013, 'Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America.', Proc Biol Sci, vol. 280, no. 1766. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1290

Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America. / Phillips, Ben L.; Puschendorf, Robert.
In: Proc Biol Sci, Vol. 280, No. 1766, 07.09.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America.

AU - Phillips, Ben L.

AU - Puschendorf, Robert

PY - 2013/9/7

Y1 - 2013/9/7

N2 - The virulence of a pathogen can vary strongly through time. While cyclical variation in virulence is regularly observed, directional shifts in virulence are less commonly observed and are typically associated with decreasing virulence of biological control agents through coevolution. It is increasingly appreciated, however, that spatial effects can lead to evolutionary trajectories that differ from standard expectations. One such possibility is that, as a pathogen spreads through a naive host population, its virulence increases on the invasion front. In Central America, there is compelling evidence for the recent spread of pathogenic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and for its strong impact on amphibian populations. Here, we re-examine data on Bd prevalence and amphibian population decline across 13 sites from southern Mexico through Central America, and show that, in the initial phases of the Bd invasion, amphibian population decline lagged approximately 9 years behind the arrival of the pathogen, but that this lag diminished markedly over time. In total, our analysis suggests an increase in Bd virulence as it spread southwards, a pattern consistent with rapid evolution of increased virulence on Bd's invading front. The impact of Bd on amphibians might therefore be driven by rapid evolution in addition to more proximate environmental drivers.

AB - The virulence of a pathogen can vary strongly through time. While cyclical variation in virulence is regularly observed, directional shifts in virulence are less commonly observed and are typically associated with decreasing virulence of biological control agents through coevolution. It is increasingly appreciated, however, that spatial effects can lead to evolutionary trajectories that differ from standard expectations. One such possibility is that, as a pathogen spreads through a naive host population, its virulence increases on the invasion front. In Central America, there is compelling evidence for the recent spread of pathogenic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and for its strong impact on amphibian populations. Here, we re-examine data on Bd prevalence and amphibian population decline across 13 sites from southern Mexico through Central America, and show that, in the initial phases of the Bd invasion, amphibian population decline lagged approximately 9 years behind the arrival of the pathogen, but that this lag diminished markedly over time. In total, our analysis suggests an increase in Bd virulence as it spread southwards, a pattern consistent with rapid evolution of increased virulence on Bd's invading front. The impact of Bd on amphibians might therefore be driven by rapid evolution in addition to more proximate environmental drivers.

KW - amphibian declines

KW - chytridiomycosis

KW - epidemiology

KW - hierarchical Bayesian model

KW - host–pathogen

KW - virulence

KW - Amphibians

KW - Animals

KW - Central America

KW - Chytridiomycota

KW - Host-Pathogen Interactions

KW - Population Density

KW - Population Dynamics

KW - Virulence

U2 - 10.1098/rspb.2013.1290

DO - 10.1098/rspb.2013.1290

M3 - Article

SN - 1471-2954

VL - 280

JO - Proc Biol Sci

JF - Proc Biol Sci

IS - 1766

ER -

Phillips BL, Puschendorf R. Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America. Proc Biol Sci. 2013 Sept 7;280(1766). doi: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1290